"Journal of Tsinghua University (Philosophy and Social Sciences) 2016 the fifth period

OF: Hu Angang, professor at Tsinghua University School of Public Administration, Research Institute of Tsinghua University Dean of conditions; any Hao, Tsinghua University doctoral student; Lu Yu-feng, Tsinghua University postdoctoral; Zhoushao Jie, Tsinghua University School of Public Administration, Tsinghua University Institute of national conditions and associate professor.

Abstract: Since the "12th Five-Year Plan", with China's economic growth rate down, whether China will fall into the "middle-income trap" has become the key to judge China's economic growth prospects. During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, China's core mission is to "build a well-off society in an all-round way" and lay a foundation for development across the "middle-income trap" and high-income development stage around 2025. Based on the major problems in China's economic and social development, we identify five challenges that affect our country's "middle-income trap", namely, total factor productivity challenge, urbanization challenge, ecological environment challenge, passive dependence type challenge and inequality challenge. The five principles of innovation, coordination, green, openness and sharing are the strategic guidelines and basic approaches to successfully deal with the above five challenges, which is the key to realize the "middle income trap". Therefore, special emphasis is placed on the modernization of state governance system and management capacity, avoiding political subversive mistakes and building a stable political and social environment. It is a political condition for the success of the "middle income trap".

Keywords: middle-income trap; "thirteen-five" plan; five development ideas; national governance capacity

During the "thirth Five-Year Plan" period, China will not only complete the goal of building a well-off society in 2020, but also undergo profound adjustment of its economic structure and profound changes in the mode of economic growth, and whether it can maintain medium- and high-speed growth during this period. Speed on China's future can successfully cross the middle-income stage is essential. In this regard, Xi Jinping, general secretary has given a clear answer: "For China, the middle-income trap is certainly going to be the past, the key is when to step in the past, after the past, how to better forward." We are confident Between reform and development and stability, as well as steady growth, structural adjustment, benefit people's livelihood, to promote reform to find a balance between, so that China's economic stability Zhiyuan. "

So, how can China successfully cross the middle-income trap, the party's Eighth Fifth Plenary Session gives a clear road map, put forward the "innovation, coordination, green, open, sharing" five development of new ideas, face " Trap "on China's future development challenges. It can be argued that the five development concepts are the basic ways to successfully cross the middle-income trap and lay the foundation for China to continue its healthy development after entering the high-income stage.

This article attempts to answer the following important questions: Does China cross the middle-income trap? When can I cross the middle income stage? By what means, what measures can be used to successfully cross the middle-income trap? What are the key political guarantees to ensure that the middle-income trap is crossed? What kind of development path to follow in order to make China's economic giant ship steady Zhiyuan. Different from the analysis frame of western economics, this paper puts forward an analytical framework based on political economy. By analyzing the characteristics of the stage of middle income development, especially for the five major challenges of transcending the middle income trap, namely the total factor productivity challenge, urbanization Challenges, challenges of ecological environment, challenges of passive dependence and unequal challenges. It is pointed out that only under the guidance of the five major development and development concepts should we properly eliminate the constraints that hinder and impede the development of social productive forces and avoid all kinds of possible pitfalls. , In order to effectively eliminate the process of economic development in a variety of systemic risk. China's success in transcending the middle-income trap is the most important guarantee of political stability. By continuously and comprehensively deepening the reform and continuously promoting the modernization of the country's governance system and governance capacity, China's economy can achieve long-term and medium-speed development.

The most important prerequisite for avoiding the middle-income trap is to avoid committing "subversive mistakes" politically. The key is to build a stable political and social environment and realize the "big rule of the world", which is the largest national public goods. As a ruling party, the Communist Party of China must take up this important historical responsibility. In the ability to govern, to build the national governance system and the ability to modernize, and constantly improve for China's national conditions, facing the world, facing the future of the national governance system; in the development concept, is to implement the five development concept, effectively respond to these five challenges , So as to achieve an effective leap in the middle income stage. If the theme of the "12th Five-Year Plan" is to avoid middle-income trap because of the outbreak of the international financial crisis, the theme of "13th Five-Year Plan" will lay a solid foundation for development across the middle-income trap, Country to prepare. Fundamentally speaking, the realization of the trajectory of leaping the middle income lies in unswervingly taking the road of China, perfecting the state governance system and improving the ability of state administration, transforming the mode of economic development, and establishing the development of the country in the development of innovation, coordination, greenness, opening and sharing. Mode. Perhaps less than a decade later, when we revisited the middle-income trap, it was highly probable that the "middle-income trap" was just a warning to China about the major challenges facing the current stage of development.

In general, if China can successfully cross the middle-income trap, which will be a great contribution to world development. In this process, China will undergo a series of profound changes in the structure of economic and social development, and will inevitably require political stability in the process of promoting the cause of reform, give play to the superiority of China's system, effectively resolve the above-mentioned significant Challenges, to prevent social instability, to prevent political development errors, to avoid stagnation of economic growth. Under the guidance of the five major development concepts, China will complete the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in 2020 as scheduled, and then successfully cross the "middle income trap" before and after 2025 and enter the high income stage of common prosperity.