MA XUEJING /

CHINA DAILY

文丨胡鞍钢

清华大学国情研究院院长、公共管理学院教授

原文载丨 China Daily，2019.4.17

By Hu Angang | China Daily | Wednesday, April 17, 2019 | 13

The author is dean of the Institute for Contemporary China Studies and professor of School of Public Policy and Management at Tsinghua University.

The 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-20) set out a clear path to achieve the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects by 2020. Specifically it set seven major objectives and specified 25 main indicators, both qualitative and quantitative, for economic and social development; and proposed improvements to the mechanisms for planning implementation, inspection and evaluation.

So far, the main economic development indicators have been completed on schedule, except for the value-added of the service sector. It will be difficult for this indicator to reach the goal of 56 percent of GDP by 2020, as it was only 52.2 percent in 2018. Similarly, while most innovation-driven development indicators have met their targets, research and development expenditure was only 2.18 percent of GDP, and will struggle to reach the goal of 2.5 percent by 2020.

What is particularly encouraging, however, is all the indicators concerning the well-being of the people have been completed according to plan, and most of the indicators concerning resources and the environment have been improved, providing a strong signal that China can continue on its path of economic development without increasing its emissions of major pollutants.

From a global perspective, despite the China-US trade dispute, China's main economic indicators have been kept within an appropriate range, and the trend of steady progress continues. Over the past three years China's economy has entered a stage of medium-to-high speed growth, with an average growth rate of 6.7 percent. If China can maintain a GDP growth rate of 6.1 percent in 2019 and 2020, the goal of doubling the 2010 GDP will be met.

In industrial development, China's economic growth model has been transformed from one dominated by the secondary industry to a predominantly tertiary industry model, where the service industry accounts for up to 60 percent of economic growth.

Moreover, China's infrastructure is now among the most advanced in the world. China has the largest high-speed railway network, the highest transport density and the most complex operation network, reshaping the country's economic geography and facilitating better coordination of overall economic development. With the Belt and Road Initiative, China is extending these benefits to neighboring countries, and ultimately to the world.

China's new type of urbanization, which emphasizes coordinated development between urban and rural areas, has become an important force behind its steady and long-term economic growth. The gap between urban and rural disposable incomes and per capita consumption expenditure has shrunk, and there have been great improvements in the basic public services and social security systems covering both urban and rural areas. The improvement of rural infrastructure has promoted the rapid development of rural tourism, the formation of new patterns of urban and rural interaction and exchange, and a new channel for consumption growth.

Domestic demand, rather than production, has become the biggest source of stable economic growth. With 1.4 billion consumers and continuing economic growth, China is expected to overtake the United States to become the world's No 1 retail market this year, according to market research organization EMA.

China is already the world's largest domestic tourism market. And while outbound tourism is still in the elite consumption stage, it will enter the popular consumption stage.

The leading role of scientific and technological innovation has been significantly enhanced. China's input and output in science and technology have set records, and China's investment in research and development ranks second in the world.

China is now a world leader in innovation and the new economy, especially in the areas of digital economy, the internet of things. New industries, new business forms and new models now constitute a main pillar of the national economy, and offer an opportunity for China to create new sources of economic growth.

Domestic invention patent quality has increased, and China has gained significant advantages in intellectual property rights, which offer protections that will be crucial for Chinese enterprises as they go global and invest worldwide. China must now focus on building a market that can commercialize those intellectual properties.

Although, China's labor force population has reached its peak, with the recruitment of increasing numbers of college graduates and returned students its quality has steadily improved. Current improvements in education, from preschool to university level, will ensure that the quality continues to increase.

China is also making progress toward realizing an ecological civilization. China has reduced coal consumption from 70 percent in 2011 to 59.0 percent in 2018, while in terms of installed power-generating capacity, the share of clean energy rose from 26.6 percent in 2010 to nearly 40 percent in 2018, and the efficiency of coal power generation is now among the most advanced in the world.

In addition, China has succeeded in decoupling water resource consumption from economic growth. Over the past few years, even as the population, economy and urbanization have all been growing, China has managed to reduce water consumption per unit of GDP and per unit of industrial added value. Given the scarcity of water resources in China, this success in establishing a water-saving economic society is crucial for the sustainability of future growth.

Furthermore, annual binding targets for ecological and environmental protection nationwide are being met, while reductions in air and soil pollution, and major advances in the treatment of sewage, all indicate the transformation toward green-oriented development.

Finally, China's program of reform and opening-up is being deepened and the development dividend is growing. China has consolidated its position as the world's largest trading body of goods and has become the largest trading partner of more than 100 countries and regions. The Belt and Road Initiative has expanded the emerging markets of developing countries, substantially reduced tariff rates and further opened the door to the world, making China the largest import market.